Monday, March 31, 2008

Shock and ore

After four days, Jason Manifis is three-quarters of the way through driving his weekly 1600-kilometre loop around northwestern Australia, selling frozen fish to hungry iron-ore miners.
A day earlier, workers blanketed in rust-red ore dust lined up 20 deep outside the giant Newman mine to buy prawns, cod, barramundi or any of the dozen or so varieties of seafood Manifis carts around the outback each week in his refrigerated truck.
"Sales are up 30, 40% this year alone," he says. "Everybody here's cashed up."
A mining frenzy spurred by a voracious appetite among Chinese steel mills for rich Australian ore has mining companies scrambling to fill orders, flooding this corner of the outback with thousands of highly-paid workers.
"For me, it's work, then my barbecued shrimp, bed and work again," says Tom Weld, 31, a chef from Perth, 900 miles to the south, who now hauls ore mined in 600 feet-deep pits by truck to waiting railroad cars 12 hours a day, six days a week.
Internet dating services in far western Australia, such as MeetAMiningMan, target single miners looking for partners willing to tolerate "fly in, fly out" relationships.
About 25% of workers in the mines are women and many face the same shortage of suitable partners as men, according to people involved in hiring.
"My boyfriend and I came from England to work in the Tom Price mine together, me as a cook while he drives a truck and make a lot of money quickly to travel," says Sharon White outside a jobs recruitment centre in Port Hedland.
"But I don't want to go it alone and neither does he."
The giant mining pits more resemble excavation sites than most people's idea of mine camps. Ore is simply churned up by bulldozers and carted in trucks to waiting open-topped rail cars. A typical train is about a mile long and consists of 300 cars hauling 24,000 metric tonnes of ore each hundreds of miles to Port Hedland or Port Dampier to waiting freighters.
On average a trainload leaves a mine every hour 24 hours a day. Starting salaries are advertised at about $80,000 a year and typically include company-subsidised rent, one week off a month and a free trip home and back on a company plane or commercial jet.
"A young person coming up here is afforded a real opportunity, one that didn't exist a few years ago before China started buying our ore," said David Flanagan, managing director of Atlas Iron Ltd , which will make its first shipment of one million metric tonnes of ore to Chinese mills this year.

Most of the ore is dug in the 500,000-square kilometre Pilbara region, one of the most inhospitable places in Australia, where hundreds of kilometres separate the few towns in the region and temperatures in the summer often exceed 40 degrees. Industry giants Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton accounted for 90% of the 300 million tonnes mined overall in the Pilbara last year.
Both companies are earmarking billions of dollars to exploit new lodes and dig existing ones deeper to keep pace with China's steel-hungry economy. It takes about a tonne-and-a-half of ore to make a tonne of steel.
"China needs the ore and Australia's got it, it's that simple," says James Wilson, a mining analyst for DJ Carmichael & Co.
Ore prices on the world market are up 65% or more this year to around $85 a tonne and are likely to keep rising, Wilson and other analysts say, increasing the need for more workers in the mines.
"People looking for work know they are going to forfeit some of the conveniences of the cities, but you can't make the money there that you can here," says Andrea Ling, a recruitment consultant for Chandler Macleod, an employment agency in Port Hedland.
"If we can't guarantee top dollar, people just won't show up for work. They know they can go elsewhere and get hired in a second," Ms Ling says.
For some, the ore may as well be gold.
The promise to ship up to 55 million tonnes of ore to China in 2008 and more each year turned Andrew "Twiggy" Forrest, a 47-year-old mining entrepreneur with a tin pot company five years ago into Australia's richest man, worth more than A$9 billion.
"If you believe in the Australian iron ore story, and I do, then it is easy to see we haven't even scratched the surface as far as potential goes," Mr Forrest said in a recent interview.
Gina Rinehart, whose father Lang Hancock discovered the Pilbara deposits in 1952 when bad weather forced his plane to fly low over the outback, where he noticed deep rust-coloured veins of iron running across massive gorges, boasts a fortune of about $5.5 billion.
However, a government ban on exporting iron ore dating back to 1938 out of fear Japan would use the ore to make steel weapons during World War 11 was in effect until 1961.
Mr Hancock eventually sold his rights to the ore to big mining companies, retaining royalties worth hundreds of millions of dollars a year.
"There wouldn't have been much of a market for fish out here in the early days," says Manifis, passing a frozen bag of prawns to a customer.. "But all that's changed now."

Monday, March 24, 2008

Slump offers bargains for investors

Some unloved stocks are now a third of the price that they deserve to be and the sharemarket rout presents bargains for retail investors and corporate predators, analysts say.
Cheap sharemarket valuations have led to strong merger and acquisition activity, particularly in the resources sector. The most recent example is the Lihir Gold/Equigold combination announced on Friday, and a takeover bid by Indophil Resources for Lion Selection announced on Thursday.''And we're going to see more of this, there is no doubt,'' said independent analyst Peter Strachan.
CopperCo, which is merging with Mineral Securities, was a prime example of a company now priced at a third of its value, he said.
Mr Strachan said many companies were trading at bargain basement, bottom-of-the-cycle levels.''They're probably 3-5% from the bottom in any continued downward movement, which I think we're going to get,'' Mr Strachan said.''The stocks that stick out are property developers and property trusts, and also financials: the main banks, Suncorp-Metway and ANZ particularly.''Those stocks have fallen 50%.''I know there will be profit downgrades from the banks ... but I still think, if you take a two or three-year view, those stocks are looking particularly cheap.''Mr Strachan said oil and gas producers such as Petsec Energy, Arc Energy, AWE and Roc Oil Company represented extraordinary value.''Petsec ... would spit out the same amount of cash as you would pay to buy the company in about 14 months.''While not yet producers, oil and gas explorers Otto Energy and Nexus Energy were also good value, he said.''Any company that's got oil and gas assets, as opposed to undertaking pure exploration, looks cheap.''Mr Strachan said the energy sector had lost favour with investors due to a lack of recent exploration success and operational woes at projects including AED's Puffin field and the Anzon Australia-operated Basker Manta Gummy joint venture.
Mr Strachan said a string of high-profile dusters - dry wells - included Adelphi Energy's Sugarloaf project in the US and others in Mauritania and China's Beibu Gulf.He said some companies servicing the resource sector offered better value than others, with GRD, RCR Tomlinson and Monadelphous Group being the top picks.Among this sector, the most expensive stocks included United Group, Leighton Holdings and WorleyParsons, he added.
He said BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, which comprise 20% of the S&P/ASX 200, were highly priced.''If Rio goes back to $80 and BHP goes back to $28 to $29, we'll see this market back at 4800 points, and that's when I'd be looking to pick up some stock.''.
In a research note today, brokerage DJ Carmichael said the companies that were merging were acquiring targets with large sums of cash.''This makes sense in these difficult times of raising debt to build large projects,'' the brokerage said.As for future M&A targets, DJ Carmichael singled out Murchison Metals and Mount Gibson Iron Ore as potential targets.Murchison has cash and liquid investments of about $190 million and Mount Gibson, $120 million.
DJ Carmichael also pointed to Troy Resources, a 60,000-ounce-a-year gold producer with $80 million in cash and an enterprise value of about $100 million.Not only are companies including Moly Mines facing deferred project development as financing arrangements become increasingly hard to complete, new floats were drying up, DJ Carmichael resources analyst James Wilson said.
While retail investors should be making the most of the current fire sale, they remained averse to risk, Mr Wilson said.
There were ``bargains galore'' to be had, he said.

Sunday, March 23, 2008

Best bets when it comes to online broking

ONLINE broking is a cheaper option for trading than a full service broker and there are numerous packages and offers available from online operators. Your cheapest option will ultimately depend on your trading habits and needs.

Denis Orrock, general manager of Infochoice, says investors need to be careful that when they sign with an online broker they get the package that suits them - which may not necessarily be the cheapest.

"Interactive give the cheapest access to the market but if you want a few bells and whistles, you may have to go for one of the higher-cost CommSec or E-Trade packages.

"Then again, if you are just doing a one-off trade, you don't want to be signing up for something you aren't going to use," he says.

Fees charged by online brokers vary in terms of the dollar amount and frequency of trades.

Working out a total cost comes down to how often you expect to buy and sell shares online and whether you want additional services such as broker research, international shares, real-time price data or a margin loan.

Online brokers charge a minimum flat fee for trades up to a specified limit; a percentage brokerage fee applies to trades above the limit.

Free brokerage for new members is the cheapest way to trade shares but, as with most special offers, the devil is in the detail.

E-trade has a $550 "free" brokerage offer for new members - the main caveat is that trades must be less than $50,000.

It will waive its standard brokerage fee of $32.95 for the first 10 ASX-listed equity trades executed within two months of opening an account.

CommSec also gives the first 12 equity trades for free, up to a total brokerage value of $600, for new members.

Trades must be below $50,000 and completed by June 30.

At $19.95, CommSec is one of the cheaper online brokers but only if you are Clearing House Electronic Subregister System (CHESS), sponsored by CommSec and settle your trades through the Commonwealth Direct Investment Account, or a CommSec or Colonial margin loan.

The fee then jumps to $29.95 for trades up to $10,000 which is where many of CommSec's competitors' prices start.

The exception is Bell Direct which, for $15 a trade up to $10,000 of shares, is the cheapest mainstream online broker, although it is limited to Australian shares and data is historic rather than real-time.

Interactive Brokers is cheaper still at $6 a trade up to $7500.

However, it is aimed at professionals doing 50 to 100 trades a day, so costs can quickly add up.

Account holders also pay an extra $37.50 a month for live prices from the ASX.

Monthly subscription fees are not uncommon, with First Prudential and Trader Dealer both charging a monthly fee for clients more likely to be considered traders.

OneTrade, Net Wealth and Amscot are also at the lower-cost end, particularly for shares or trades of less than $5000.

Westpac also has a cheaper service for customers who link their accounts - prices start at $24.95 for trades up to $25,000.

E-Trade charges $32.95 for trades up to $30,000 with frequent-trader options available.

Many online brokers offer volume discounts to frequent traders who buy and sell, for example, more than five times in a calendar month.

The discount may take the form of discounted brokerage for subsequent trades, rebates on brokerage for all trades placed, refunds of monthly subscription fees or access to dynamic data and software.

Online brokers who allow you to trade using borrowed money - known as a margin loan - may charge a slightly higher brokerage fee.

Not all brokers allow trading with a margin loan and not all brokers which offer margin loans allow orders to be placed online.

Infochoice has a brokerage fee comparison calculator on its website where you can see how fees vary over a selected range.

See www.infochoice.com.au.

Sunday, March 09, 2008

Groves loses ABC after forced sale

EDDY GROVES has lost his grip on ABC Learning. The founder of the child-care group last night revealed he had been forced to sell the bulk of his remaining stake for $26 million, leaving him with a holding worth just $4683 at yesterday's closing price after 20 years at the helm of the company.
Asked whether he had been given an opportunity to put up collateral to avoid the margin calls, Mr Groves, whose personal stake was once almost $300 million, last night told the Herald: "I have no comment on that."
He declined further comment.
Filings with the stock exchange revealed Mr Groves's wife, LeNeve, and another director, Martin Kemp, were also victims of more margin calls on Thursday.
Lenders had already forced Mr Groves, Ms Groves and Mr Kemp to sell shares last month when ABC was sold after a poor half-year profit result and speculation it had breached some of its debt covenants.
Ms Groves sold a stake worth $13.6 million, retaining a holding worth only $19,110. Mr Kemp sold $5.5 million of shares, holding onto a stake worth just $34,800.
Mr Groves returned to Brisbane yesterday morning from a week-long emergency trip to the United States where he struck a conditional deal to sell 60 per cent of the company's North American business for about $750 million in cash and convertible notes.
Analysts have criticised the company for a lack of clarity surrounding the terms of the deal and Citi's Jenny Owen has called for the board and management to resign. While Singapore's Temasek has increased its stake in ABC during the past two weeks, it has declined to publicly express support for Mr Groves.
ABC shares fell a further 14 per cent to close 28c lower at $1.47 yesterday amid more concerns over the terms of the proposed sale of 60 per cent of the US business to Morgan Stanley Private Equity.
ABC's camp denied a Reuters report that suggested banks behind a $1.62 billion debt facility struck in December would approve the US asset sale only if they received a higher margin on the loan.
There were also concerns over the terms of a proposed convertible note issue that would give Morgan Stanley a 10 per cent stake in the company.
Last year ABC issued $600 million worth of so-called "exploding convertible notes" which convert into $100 worth of shares at the trading price when they mature in 2016. But ABC has confirmed it will issue more conventional senior unlisted convertible notes to Morgan Stanley with lower annual interest rate than last year's note issue. The conversion price will be set at a premium to ABC's trading price after it completes the transaction.
Citi estimated the face value of the new note issue would be $240 million.
ABC expects to conclude the deal with Morgan Stanley at the end of April and has given the US group until March 24 to exclusively negotiate final documentation.
But in a presentation on Wednesday, it warned the US asset sale and convertible note issue were both subject to "a number of conditions".

Saturday, March 08, 2008

Why Rudd's tax cuts are grubby politics and bad economics

Don't be taken in by the efforts of Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan to portray their persistence with the promised tax cuts as a matter of good economics and high principles.
They're trying to dress up an irresponsible promise born of grubby political manoeuvring which, apparently, they don't have the courage to ditch and face the electorate's ire.
Let's start with the politics. Why would any Treasurer with a claim to being responsible lock himself into a promise to cut tax by a given amount in the coming financial year, the year after that and the year after that?
It's hard to be confident of what state the economy will be in at the end of the first year, let alone what it will be like in 2010-11. Why commit yourself so far into the murky future?
Worse, why would any Treasurer with a half a brain promise tax cuts at the top of a boom, when the Reserve Bank and his own Treasury secretary had been banging on for ages about the high risk of an inflation break-out with the economy close to full capacity?
I'm talking, of course, about Peter Costello. And I'll tell you why. Mr Costello knew that when the Treasury secretary and the Finance secretary produced their Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook report a few days after the start of last year's election campaign, they'd make significant upward revisions to the budget surpluses projected for the following three years.
Mr Costello was terribly afraid that, if so, his Labor opponents would leap in and try to buy votes by promising to spend all the extra revenue. He was obsessed by this fear because of his belief that the Kennett government's surprise defeat in Victoria in 1999 had been caused by Labor stealing its surplus, so to speak.
So Mr Costello decided to get in first. He pre-empted the econocrat-controlled PEFO by bringing forward the report he controlled, the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, and including within it a Howard government decision to cut taxes by $34 billion over three years.
By being first to act irresponsibly he was trying to snooker Labor. He'd kicked off the campaign with a huge tax bribe. Labor pondered for a few days before deciding its best response was to ditch whatever tax changes it had been planning and say "me too" to the Liberals' cuts. It made a few changes at the edges for appearance's sake.
In terms of short-term tactics - of political expediency - this was undoubtedly a smart move. Labor wasn't prepared to occupy the high ground by offering a smaller tax bribe than its opponents. Because the punters always view the Libs as the better party on taxation, it knew it couldn't win a game of my-tax-cut's-better-than-yours.

By simply saying "me too", Labor totally neutralised tax cuts as an election issue. Since they weren't a point of difference, they were never mentioned again, which suited Labor fine. Costello's first strike had been turned away.
So that's the political origin of Labor's promised tax cuts. Any fancy economic arguments are mere rationalisations after the political fact. Labor knew that if it won the election it would be taking over at a particularly daunting point in the cycle but, in the heat of the campaign, it wasn't fussed. First win the election, then worry about whether your promises were responsible.
But let's look at the economic arguments Labor is raising in defence of the indefensible. The key to evaluating them is to remember that neutralising the effect on demand of the promised $7 billion tax cut in 2008-09 would require about two 0.25-percentage-point rate rises.
Such rate rises would increase the payments on a $300,000 mortgage by about $103 a month, whereas the tax cuts would be worth $50 a month to people on incomes around the middle, $92 a month to people on incomes between $80,000 and $150,000 a year and $217 a month to people on incomes above $180,000.
First point: Mr Swan says one reason the Government is "emphatic" the tax cut will be delivered is that it "rewards the hard work of the great bulk of lower and middle [income earners] … who have worked to make this economy strong, who haven't [had] a fair share of tax cuts in my view in recent years. They have earned them."
This misrepresents the (odd) shape of the cuts. It's true that, having been conceived in an election campaign, they are, for once, quite generous to people on incomes below the middle, who save up to $88 a month.
But Mr Swan carefully fails to mention that a key feature of the cuts is the raising of the cut-in points for the top two tax rates (making well-paid economics editors major beneficiaries). Lower and middle, did you say?
The arithmetic simply doesn't support the claim that the cuts will somehow take a bit of heat off hard-pressed working families with mortgages. What would best reduce the heat they'll be facing - and spread the pain more fairly - would be to ditch the tax cuts and thus avoid adding to the need for further rate rises.
The same goes for the argument that going ahead with the tax cuts will "relieve pressure in the wages system". That's true only if you delude yourself that the cuts have no opportunity cost.

I'd have thought the presence of two more interest-rate increases would be likely to do more to fuel a wage break-out than the absence of a tax cut of $10 to $20 a week.
Finally we have the argument that the tax cuts will help on the supply side by raising participation in the labour force. Labor has embraced Mr Costello's claim that the three-year cuts will encourage an additional 65,000 people into the workforce. There's no denying that raising the effective cut-in point for the 15 per cent tax rate and raising the nominal cut-in point for the 30 per cent rate can be expected to encourage more mothers and students to work part-time or work additional part-time hours.
But there's no empirical evidence to support the fond belief that cutting the tax rates faced by people earning more than $75,000 and $150,000 a year would encourage them to supply more labour - and I doubt if any of them are included in the 65,000 figure.
In any case, getting extra part-time hours from 65,000 people "over the medium term" (however long that is) is quite a modest supply-side gain in return for a $31 billion addition to demand.
In other words, the supply-side argument is a mere fig leaf, which fails to cover the naked political motivation that gave birth to the tax-cuts promise and is prompting the Government to dig in its heels for fear of the electorate's ire.
At the very least, Mr Swan could make a more honest man of himself by reneging on the generous tax cuts going to higher-income earners. You don't need them yourself, Wayne, and neither do I.

Friday, March 07, 2008

Credit fears send stocks tumbling

Investors have stripped $38.2 billion from the Australian stock market amid continuing global credit woes and fears of a recession in the US, with expectations the rout is set to continue.The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was 171.5 points, or 3.16%, lower at 5264, while the broader All Ordinaries fell 163 points or 2.95% to 5368.9.It was the biggest fall on the market since February 6.At the close of day trading on the Sydney Futures Exchange, the March share price index contract was 174 points lower at 5270, on a volume of 27,280 contracts.CMC Markets senior dealer Dominic Vaughan said losses on the local market were driven by continuing credit woes, with further falls expected.''We got a double whammy today, we've had soft retail prices overnight and a continuation of the woes within the financial sector,'' Mr Vaughan said.''The US fell quite heavily last night and again it is financial issues.''We still have some downside left in the market, which is sad to say, but that's the way it is looking trend-wise, it is still looking heavy.''ANZ dropped 93 cents to $20.26, National Australia Bank lost $1.53 to $26.93, Commonwealth Bank shed $1.22 to $39.35 and Westpac gave up 99 cents to $21.14.The market got off to a poor start following a weak lead from Wall Street overnight after the the Dow Jones industrial average lost 214.6 points, or 1.75%, to close at 12,040.39.Allco Finance Group lost 10.5 cents or 16.67% to 52.5 cents after a major shareholder, Allco Principal Investments, said last night it was likely to go into voluntary administration after it was unable to seal standstill agreements with its margin lenders.NAB is expected to book a loan loss provision of around $90 million on a $110 million loan to API, prompting broker Citigroup to today slap a ``Sell'' recommendation on NAB.Qantas dropped 28 cents to $4.03 and has denied suggestions that it's in discussions with Bankstown Airport about operating services to and from the site in Sydney's western suburbs.Woolworths lost $1.34 to $28.70, David Jones dropped 20 cents to $3.81 and Harvey Norman slipped five cents to $4.00.Wesfarmers, the owner of Australia's second largest retailer, Coles, dropped 94 cents to $37.72.Bakery and spreads group Goodman Fielder dipped 4.5 cents to $1.795 after the company snapped up biscuits and muesli bars manufacturer Paradise Food Industries for about $80 million.The media sector was also weaker, with Consolidated Media Holdings shedding 43 cents to $3.87, Fairfax falling 14 cents to $3.81, News Corp dropping 43 cents to $20.25 and its non-voting shares losing 42 cents to $19.54.The energy sector was weaker, with Santos losing three cents to $12.40, Woodside shedding 33 cents to $56.50 and Oil Search falling one cent to $4.35.The big miners were weaker, with BHP Billiton losing 92 cents or 2.31% to $38.88 and rival Rio Tinto falling $4.80 or 3.53% to $131.20.The spot price of gold was lower and it closed Sydney trading at $US982.90 an ounce, down $US3.50 on yesterday's local close of $US986.40 an ounce.Newmont added two cents to $5.48, Newcrest fell 16 cents to $40.09 and Lihir retreated nine cents to $4.08.Empire Oil & Gas was the most traded stock on the market, with 137.87 million shares changing hands, worth $3.05 million.Market turnover reached 1.69 billion, worth a total value of $7.22 billion, with 326 stocks rising, 927 falling and 342 unchanged.AAP

More pain before more gains on sharemarkets

It seems hard to imagine now, but last May Macquarie Group shares nearly cracked the $100 mark.
Since then a global credit crunch hasn't done the investment bank any favours. On Friday Macquarie's shares closed $1.57 lower at $45.43 - less than half a record high of $98.64 in May.
In more bad news, the Australian sharemarket is likely to open lower today after steep losses on US markets caused by continuing recession worries in the US.
On Wall Street on Friday stocks fell to close at their lowest level in 19 months after a report showed that employers unexpectedly shed jobs at the steepest rate in nearly five years, standing as confirmation for many investors that the US is in recession.
Investment banks Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns, that had been scheduled to report their fourth-quarter earnings this week, postponed their results announcements until next week.
Goldman Sachs JBWere said that in the past two weeks more than a dozen analysts had lowered their first-quarter profit estimates for investment banks on expectations of more writedowns associated with the collapse of the subprime market.
On Friday the Dow Jones industrial average slid by 146.70 points, or 1.22 per cent, to 11,893.69. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell by 10.97 points, or 0.84 per cent, to 1293.37. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 8.01 points, or 0.36 per cent, to 2212.49.
AMP Capital Investors' head of investment strategy, Shane Oliver, said the local sharemarket would open lower today.
"The further fall in US sharemarkets on Friday night and futures trading in Australian shares indicates the Australian sharemarket will fall another 90 to 100 points or so … which will take it below its January 22 panic low of 5186 on the ASX 200," he said.
On the local market on Friday, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index was 171.5 points, or 3.16 per cent, lower at 5264, while the broader All Ordinaries fell by 163 points, or 2.95 per cent, to 5368.9.
Mr Oliver said he expected weakness in the sharemarket to continue in the coming months.
"Notwithstanding occasional bounces, further weakness is likely in the months ahead before better conditions return later this year."
With the company reporting season coming to a close, there is a big week ahead in terms of economic data.
Monthly housing finance data is due out tomorrow, the ANZ job ads for February will be released tomorrow, monthly consumer sentiment data is published on Wednesday and on Thursday the monthly employment figures will be released.

Monday, March 03, 2008

Banks suffer as nervous Nellies wipe off $38.5b

Nervous investors wiped $38.5 billion, or almost 3 per cent, from the value of the Australian sharemarket yesterday amid heavy selling, particularly of bank shares, over concerns about rising borrowing costs and growing evidence of a recession in the United States.
The ASX 200 index closed 166.3 points, or 2.98 per cent, lower at 5405.8 points, while the broader-based All Ordinaries index was down 164 to 5510.7.
The Commonwealth Bank was down $2.13, or 5.06 per cent, to $40.00, ANZ was down $1.07 to $20.93, Westpac was down 57c to $22.75 and NAB had lost $1.67, or 5.79 per cent, to $27.18.
CommSec chief equities economist Craig James said the Reserve Bank of Australia's expected 25-basis-points interest rate rise today had already been priced in.
Mr James said the local market was falling into line with other markets around the world yesterday, with falls across all Asian bourses excluding China.
"It has been taken out of our hands today and it doesn't matter how strong our economy is or what happens with interest rates and company news: it's all due to fears of a recession in the US," Mr James said. "This is a global market sell-off.
"Certainly, the banking sector is the hardest hit, which is surprising given bad loans are at record lows as a proportion of total loans.
"It reflects the fact that fear, rather than fundamentals, is driving the markets today."
He said pockets of joy in the local market included agriculture stocks such as ABB and AWB, up on higher grain prices, and the health-care sector, with CSL providing a haven amid the turmoil.
AWB shares were 5c higher to $2.40, ABB Grain was 8c stronger at $8.66 and CSL rose 55c to $37.05.
"Zinifex and Oxiana are dominating the action in the resources sector," Mr James said.
Oxiana agreed to a $6.2 billion merger with Zinifex to create the world's second largest zinc producer, ending months of speculation of a potential tie-up.
Zinifex's takeover offer for nickel miner Allegiance closes this Friday.
Zinifex finished up $1.02 or 9.16 per cent at $12.15 and Oxiana, which was the fourth-most traded stock yesterday, was down 7c to $3.90.
Allegiance shares closer half a cent lower at $1.10.
Takeover target Rio Tinto fell $5.35 to $131.65 and predator BHP Billiton lost 99c to $38.59.

As the gold price continued its climb to $US1000, Newcrest gained $1.51 to $39.55, Lihir lost 11c to $4.24 and Newmont lost 7c to $5.49. Sino Gold was up 32c to $8.02 on good volume.
Energy stocks were weaker. Oil Search fell 11c to $4.16, Santos shed 40c to $12.50 and Woodside dipped 25c to $56.75.
Rare earths hopeful Lynas Corp was the second-best performer on the day to Zinifex, closing 9c higher at $1.59.
Allco Finance Group executive chairman David Coe resigned from the company's board, along with executive directors Gordon Fell and David Turnbull, effective immediately.
Allco shares fell sharply, losing 25c, or 28.7 per cent, to 62c.
Media stocks were mostly lower. Fairfax was down 10c to $3.78, News Corp dipped 45c to $20.16, its non-voters 56c lower at $19.44, and Consolidated Media was steady at $4.34.
The retailers were weaker. Woolworths was 16c lower at $28.83, having traded as low as $28.13. Wesfarmers, the owner of Coles, lost 31c to $37.41, David Jones dropped 16c to $3.89 and Harvey Norman was down 18c to $4.37. JB Hi-Fi was off 57c at $10.06.
Agencies and staff
MONEY$A/US¢93.40-1.16
TWI70.8-1.0
90-day bank bills7.962 -0.028
3-yr bonds (Sep '09)6.6800-0.0400
10-yr bonds (Apr '15)6.2600-0.0300
YESTERDAY'S MOVES
Rises 225 Falls 1030Steady 298
Mar SPI as at 4pm 5408.0 -156.0
ASX 200 5405.8 -166.3
Financials 4949.6 -251.3
Industrials 5554.6 -123.1
Energy 14991.8 -264.7
Volume Value 1.447b 5.924b
WINNERS â–²
Zinifex +9.16%
Lynas Corp +6.00
Compass Resources +5.92
Sino Gold +4.16
Newcrest Mining +3.97
Origin Energy +3.16
Minara Resources +2.62
Sally Malay +2.60
Macquarie Media +2.36
AWB +2.13
LOSERS â–¼
Allco Finance -28.74%
City Pacific -21.63
APN/UKA European -12.50
Valad Property -11.35
Straits Resourcees -9.80
Macquarie Office -8.76
Asciano Group -8.25
Abacus Property -7.55
United Group -7.39
Arrow Energy -7.26

Sunday, March 02, 2008

Hard lesson

These former darlings of the market have a common thread - high-flying ambition, fuelled with debt, that came crashing down when the money ran out. Stuart Washington reports.

Eddy Groves, the chief executive of ABC Learning Centres, last year took his beloved basketball team, the Brisbane Bullets, on an all-expenses paid, end-of-season trip to Las Vegas. By all reports Groves drives a Ferrari Superamerica, with a price tag of about $675,000, and flies in a Citation CJ3 jet, which cost about $7.5 million.
Michael King, the former chief executive of the financial services and property empire MFS, spent an estimated $20 million building five polo fields at Elysian Fields in the Gold Coast hinterland. In July last year, King saddled up to lead his polo team, also called Elysian Fields, to win the Warwickshire Cup in Sussex, Britain. James Packer's Ellerston White played in the same competition; King's team featured the professional Chilean polo player Jose Donoso and Italian professional Marco Di Paolo.
David Coe, the executive chairman of the structured finance specialist Allco Finance Group, lives in the historic Coolong mansion in waterfront Vaucluse, bought in 1997 for a then record $14.6 million. The intensely cultured Coe reportedly has a painting by the American expressionist Mark Rothko in his house and exercises his passion for art as the chairman of the Museum of Contemporary Art.
These men shared the pages of BRW's Rich 200 edition last May: Coe on $380 million, King and his fellow MFS founder Philip Adams on $370 million, and Groves and his wife Le Neve on $295 million.
They now share a less pleasant bond: their wealth has been decimated and their business empires are in flames. All three men borrowed heavily against their shares, adding to their substantial personal financial distress.
King's wealth has been put at as little as $30 million after a now-infamous conference call in January that resulted in MFS's share price falling by two-thirds - during the call. This week The Australian Financial Review tracked him down to a Gold Coast coffee shop, reading a Dick Francis novel, Hot Money.
Groves this week revealed that his entire stake in ABC has been subject to a margin call, meaning he may be forced to sell at fire-sale prices what once was an 8 per cent holding in the company he founded in 2001.
There are more common themes between the companies these men founded. Heavy burdens of debt. Complex structures and unclear communications. Questions of appropriate disclosure of their financial arrangements. Almost inextricable ties between their personal fortunes, and persona, and those of their companies. Soaring ambition and hunger for expansion. And a market that turned harshly against them after a year in which they used cheap debt to grow their businesses bigger and bigger.

These common themes are uncomfortably close to those that brought high-flyers from another era crashing down. In the 1980s, Alan Bond, Christopher Skase and Robert Holmes a Court all shared a penchant for heavy burdens of debt. They had complex structures. And the market turned sharply against them in the Black Monday sharemarket crash of 1987.
As badly as it sits - and certainly without any suggestion of the improprieties that emerged from the '80s collapses - Groves, King and Coe have become the noughties poster boys of entrepreneurial excess.
Add Centro Properties Group's former chief executive Andrew Scott - whose brainchild posted a loss of more than a $1 billion yesterday - Rubicon's Gordon Fell and Tricom's Lance Rosenberg and there are all the makings of a replay of history.
In an unhappy coincidence for Coe, Allco Finance Group's structured finance and badly limping Allco HIT fund shares the same AHI stockmarket ticker as Bond's grandiose blimp business, Airship Industries.
Behind all these entrepreneurs are the shadowy teams of bankers, all too willing to fund their rise and rise, but now scrambling to ensure their debts will be repaid.
And in the aftermath, regulators will be picking over the role of auditors signing off accounts with substantial errors about the types of debts (Allco and Centro), the high levels of undisclosed debt over large directors' shareholdings (Allco, ABC, MFS) and rampant short selling, aided by the likes of Tricom.
The most recent accounts show the now all-too-apparent flaws in their business models. ABC Learning: negative operating cash flow of $20 million in the December half. Allco Finance Group: negative operating cash flow of $26 million in the December half. (MFS is in a trading halt, after seeking a reprieve from filing its half-year accounts.)
Without cash from refinancing or asset sales, these businesses don't have enough money to pay the bills.
After credit markets turned so sharply, refinancing is no longer a given. And with banks unwilling to lend, financing for purchases is no longer available on terms that supported previously ambitious asset prices.
The music has stopped.
There is nothing that spells out the "fly too high, run too fast" nature of these businesses more than their rapid accumulation of assets in a short period of time.
In retrospect, the businesses were shelling out top dollar for assets in the dying days of a bull market that started in March 2003.

ABC spent $870 million on new businesses in 2006-07, more than double the amount spent the previous year, including almost $500 million on the US acquisition La Petite Holdings. In 2007, its US child-care centres rose from 357 to 1000.
From June 30, 2006, its borrowings grew from $380 million to $1.8 billion.
Allco and MFS also pursued rapid growth in assets - and had equally ballooning levels of debt. Since June 2006, Allco's debt has grown from $630 million to almost $6.5 billion. In 2006-07, MFS's debt grew from $76 million to $777 million.
But it's not just the heady pace of growth that lies at the heart of the problems.
The market lost faith in structures that were becoming increasingly complex and had more than a dash of financial engineering to achieve the financial goals expected by investors. This happened in infrastructure and structured financial products, but property trusts also serve as a handy example.
In a detailed piece in 2006, the former BRW journalist John Kavanagh wrote about increasingly aggressive tactics used by property trusts to inflate their returns.
The piece raised questions about the high level of gearing, property trusts relying on income from hedging strategies, purchases of buildings enjoying temporary rent contracts above the actual market rent and an overall expansion into riskier assets in overseas markets, including former eastern bloc countries.
This was a marked departure from listed property trusts' previous practice of gaining rent from locally owned property and distributing it to unitholders.
In the BRW interview, the man who was heading Rubicon and was subject to some of the criticism, Gordon Fell, responded: "We're not f---ing wood ducks." Yesterday Rubicon America Trust reported a net profit of $50.1 million in the year to December 31, down more than 50 per cent from $102.7 million in 2006. The profit announcement was marked by a halt to distributions to preserve cash, sales of up to $800 million in assets to reduce debt levels and unwinding of its foreign exchange hedges.
The stock plunged 33 per cent from 28c to 19c on the news while its fellow funds - Rubicon Japan Trust and Rubicon Europe Trust - also fell heavily.
Just how did we get here again? After all, the excesses of the dotcom boom are hardly a distant memory.
Erik Mather, the managing director of the corporate governance service Regnan, says large institutional shareholders have to bear some responsibility.

He notes the HIH royal commissioner Neville Owen's statement that shareholders have a fiduciary duty to be interested in their investments and what has gone on.
"It's not productive to run around and play the blame game, as we get cramps in our fingers pointing at every other individual than ourselves," he says.
"The reality is, for a significant number of people in the market, we have not exactly exercised ourselves by demanding transparency from companies in the normal course of events."
Mather blames a trancelike state from investors "caught in the blazing headlights of 20 per cent returns".
And he sees the selldowns in shares like Allco, Centro and MFS as a reaction to what has been lacking for a long time. "The market tends to discount share prices where share prices are lacking in a very significant way."
But it's not as if there have not been warning signs, Mather says.
"We would have to say, in terms of our efforts to promote transparency in the sector, we have been disappointed."
Stephen Matthews, the deputy chairman of the Australian Shareholders' Association, also sees some warning signs that were ignored in the form of a powerful executive chairman such as Coe, or a powerful executive director such as King.
In a letter to today's Herald, he sees boards without a clear majority of independent directors or a dominant founding executive director who has a large shareholding have repeatedly shown negative characteristics.
These include undisclosed borrowings over large shareholdings, balance sheets that do not distinguish between current and non-current items, "mistakes" in disclosure of current and non-current liabilities (borrowings) and large intangible assets resulting from overpayment for acquisitions.
"The most important thing retail shareholders can do to safeguard their investments is to make sure they elect a majority of truly independent and knowledgeable non-executive directors to the board and that those independent directors then elect a strong independent chairman," Matthews says.
Of course, there will be winners and losers. Colin Bell, the executive chairman of Bell Financial Group, is in negotiations to buy the distressed business of Tricom after its bankers forced it to rapidly scale down its margin-lending business.
"I suppose they would not be talking to us if business was booming," he says.
"When the markets are rocking along, people with good businesses, they are happy where they are and they are not interested in selling."

Bell also makes the valid point that the highly publicised corporate flame-outs also mask an overall retreat on the world's equity markets.
"We're really inclined to be mesmerised by Allco and the ABCs and MFS. Our market has come down along with every other market," he says. "It's not like we have been a huge underperformer."
But Bell makes a comment about retail investors that might usefully apply to the super-expansion undertaken by Allco, MFS and ABC over the past year.
"People who have been hurt by it will have only got into the market in the last year and, perish the thought, got into it on a leveraged basis," he says.
The heady times enjoyed by the once super-rich executives are likely to be sharply curtailed, and already the crash is having an impact. Late last year Groves sold four separate Queensland properties, worth a total of $14 million, including one in Labrador that brought $600,000 less than he paid for it. It's hard to avoid the impression that he needed the cash for something.
Allco's Coe is subject to reports that the board want him replaced as executive chairman, although someone familiar with the situation said this week: "I can't see him walking away from this mess he's in now."
And King is understood to be facing margin calls that could wipe out his remaining wealth.
In the 2006 interview in BRW, Fell said in more optimistic circumstances as investors warmed to the highly complex Rubicon: "We have our critics but the market is voting with its feet."
Two years on, he got that right - and the rush is towards the doors.
But the veteran Bell says with the benefit of many years in the market: "There have been awful things in the market before and the market has come back."
Stuart Washington is a director of KU Children's Services, a not-for-profit provider of child-care services.